A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
