Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a sign or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six games, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
